PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE – AT 7:52 A.M. ET:  Last night we reported the disturbing news that a new poll in Pennsylvania put Democrat Joe Sestak ahead of Pat Toomey in their race for the U.S. Senate.  Toomey had been ahead by as much as ten points.  Some discounted the poll as an outlier.

I'm afraid a second poll, just published, confirms the bad news.  It has Sestak ahead by three in a state already heavily Democratic.

Sestak, about whom I've written negatively, is regarded as a great closer in election campaigns, coming from behind on several occasions to win.  If that happens again it will be a reversal of what the GOP thought was an almost sure thing for the superb Pat Toomey.  This would be a heartbreaker. 

We'll keep you informed.  Combined with some news from other states, we must be cautious about our expectations for the Senate on election day.  The GOP, which had dreamed of finding the ten seats needed to control the Senate, may wind up with as few as four or five additions.  Not a strikeout, but no home run either.

October 20, 2010